Following three consecutive record production years, total Australian winter crop production is forecast to fall by 34% to 44.9 million tonnes in 2023–24. This is around 3% below the 10-year average to 2022–23 of 46.4 million tonnes. Yield prospects are forecast to be below average due to the expectation of below average rainfall for winter and spring.
Canola production is forecast to fall by 41% to 4.9 million tonnes, around 15% above the 10-year average. A significant downside risk to the 2023–24 winter cropping season is the potential for an El Niño event which is likely to result in below average rainfall across eastern Australia