Market Update for Rapeseed & Canola 23th of July 2025

Bullish supply & demand prospects for vegetable oils on the world market have at least partly offset the bearish impact of sharply higher European new-crop supplies so far this month. Nearby rapeseed prices in Northern Germany reached US-$ 538 during 1-22 July (up 4% from a year earlier). However, the weakness in the US dollar reduced EU rapeseed prices to only EUR 460 so far this month (down 4% on the year).

Consumption of vegetable oils will grow sharply in the USA in 2025/26, following a setback by roughly 0.9 Mn T shaping up this season. The prospective further increase of US biofuel requirements in 2025/26 and the strong focus on domestic feedstock has already started to affect trade flows and price making. Rising vegetable oil prices will also support rapeseed prices in the next 12 months.

Better than initially expected EU production is seen raising domestic rapeseed supplies by 2.4 Mn T in 2025/26, more than offsetting the significant decline in old-crop stocks and reducing the import dependence of EU crushers.

OIL WORLD forecast the EU rapeseed crop to reach 20.0 Mn T in 2025, 0.7 Mn T above our estimate a month ago and sharply above the reduced crop of 17.0 Mn T harvested in 2024. Most of the upward revision was on account of Romania, where the rapeseed area apparently increased by more than 60% to an estimated 0.87 Mn ha this year. Crop conditions were partly excellent in recent weeks, contributing to a significant recovery of yields. There is still an unusually wide range of Romanian production estimates, but we consider it likely that the 2025 crop will recover to 2.6-2.7 Mn T (vs. 1.29 Mn T in 2024). Upward revisions were also made for France, Germany, Latvia and Sweden while we reduced our estimates for the Czech Republic and Estonia, with this year’s rapeseed area in both countries below initial estimates.

Global trade flows of rapeseed & canola are set to change in the 2025/26 season. The prospective production setback of a combined 1.8 Mn T in Australia, Canada and in Ukraine as well as smaller old-crop stocks are likely to reduce world exports of rapeseed & canola to only an estimated 17.1 Mn T in July/June 2025/26, a 4-year low and down 3.7 Mn T from a year earlier.

The production shortfall will be particularly severe in Ukraine at an estimated 0.7 Mn T this year, mainly reflecting reduced winter rapeseed plantings, unusually large acreage abandonment this spring and a setback in the average yield. Export duties to protect the domestic crush industry are currently being discussed but it is not yet clear when, how high and for whom they will actually be implemented.

However, the setback in Canadian canola exports will be even larger at an estimated 2.4 Mn T in 2025/26. We currently expect this year’s canola crop to reach 18.7 Mn T (vs. 19.4 Mn T in 2024), already assuming an improvement of moisture supplies in the Prairies in coming weeks, which is seen limiting the setback in the average yield to 1%. But lower old-crop stocks will widen the setback in Canadian canola supplies to 2.4 Mn T in 2025/25.