Market Update for Rapeseed & Canola 24th of November 2025

1. Soya oil: World supplies are strongly determined by the dominant co-product soya meal while consumption is subject to the vagaries of biofuel policies, primarily in the USA. The EPA still has to release its final biofuel guidance for 2026. Whether the proposed limitations on imported biofuels and feedstock will be implemented will have severe repercussions on US vegetable oil imports and crush economics in North America.  
2. Palm oil: Stocks are currently ample but may soon give way to tightening supplies, largely as a result of developments in Indonesia, both in terms of production and consumption.
3. Sunflower oil: is moving to the market only grudgingly this quarter, contrasting with generally frontloaded disposals registered in preceding seasons.
4. Rapeseed oil: Global supply estimates have grown in recent months, but particularly Canadian exporters are faced with disrupted trade flows owing to the conflict with China and US biofuel policies favoring domestic feedstock. German biofuel legislation is also an important factor to watch.

These diverging factors kept prices of the major vegetable oils within a relatively narrow range during the past three months. EU rapeseed prices have also traded in relatively narrow price range of between € 460-480 in July/Nov 2025 compared to € 455-525 a year earlier.

Comparatively tight world supplies of vegetable oils and the corresponding rise in the oil share of the combined product value have raised the attractiveness of rapeseed cultivation. Farmers have reacted and shifted acreage away from grains and other crops, bringing the global area of rapeseed to a new high of 40.2 Mn ha in 2025/26, up 1.2 Mn ha from a year earlier and 7.1 Mn ha or about 20% above 2020/21. Favorable weather conditions in most major countries have resulted in a recovery in average yields, setting the stage for record world rapeseed production of 82.9 Mn T this season, 6.7 Mn T above the reduced crop of 76.2 Mn T harvested last season.

This year’s EU rapeseed crop has turned out even larger than initially expected. Latest official estimates point to a significant recovery in average yields from last year’s comparatively low levels in Scandinavia. OIL WORLD estimates this year’s total EU rapeseed crop at 20.3 Mn T, 3.1 Mn T above the year-ago level. Large disposals confirm this year’s bumper Romanian rapeseed crop of 2.6-2.7 Mn T vs. only 1.3 Mn T harvested in 2024. Under the lead of Romania, combined EU exports of rapeseed more than doubled to in July/Sept 2025, primarily destined for the UK and Pakistan.  In contrast, EU rapeseed imports plummeted by 35% in July/Sept 2025, curbed by Ukrainian export taxes and diminishing Australian canola supplies.                                                                                

Improved domestic supplies and comparatively low prices on the world market (primarily in Canada) are likely set the stage for an increase in EU rapeseed crushings by 0.4 Mn T in July/June 2025/26. Whether processing will reach or even exceed the record 25.5 Mn T in 2023/24 will largely be determined by the still pending decision on the legislative framework for 2026 for the biodiesel sector in Germany.

Update prepared by ISTA Mielke GmbH – Global Oil World analyses and forecasts for oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals in Hamburg, Germany. On www.oilworld.de more details are provided about the company profile and the individual services.