Market Update for Rapeseed & Canola 26.02.2026

There is further upward potential in prices from current levels, assuming that a) the US biofuel mandate 2026 will be in line with the EPA proposal last year b) China will resume purchases of Canadian canola and c) EU rapeseed oil recovers in line with expectations from the low level registered in the first 8 weeks of the year.

However, favorable rapeseed crop prospects for 2026 in the EU as well as ample Australian export supplies are likely to limit the upside potential for rapeseed prices in the EU.

 Monthly Prices of Rapeseed, Europe (in US-$/T)

A large part of the sharply higher European rapeseed supplies has already been disposed of in July/Dec 2025, raising EU import requirements in the second half of the 2025/26 season. Record rapeseed crushings of 13.3 Mn T in July/Dec (up 0.4 Mn T from a year earlier) as well as sharply lower imports (down 1.0 Mn T) reduced EU rapeseed stocks to only an estimated 10.0 Mn T as of end-Dec, still up 0.9 Mn T from the unusually low level a year earlier but trailing 11.4-11.7 Mn T in the preceding two seasons.

EU imports of rapeseed & canola plummeted to a 4-year low of only 2.65 Mn T in July/Dec 2025, with the severe declines in arrivals from Ukraine (down 1.05 Mn T) and Australia (down 0.69 Mn T) only partly offset by the 0.4 Mn T increase in imports from Canada. Larger imports were also registered from Moldova and Serbia so far this season. In contrast to the setback in rapeseed, EU imports of rapeseed meal soared to a quarterly high of 0.4 Mn T in Oct/Dec 2025 (vs. only 0.1 Mn T a year earlier). Latest EU trade data indicate that Canada has filled the void after the EU Commission introduced prohibitively high import duties on Russia and Belarus. However, this is only partially true as Canadian meal is derived from genetically modified canola while non-GM rapeseed is grown in Russia and Belarus. This is seen limiting the use in certain sectors in the EU feed industry, primarily dairy.

Latest developments in the vegetable oil market were discussed in the OIL WORLD Monthly of Feb 20: The relatively large increases in global output of veg. oils in Oct/Dec 2025 and probably also in Jan/March 2026 may be followed by only minor production growth in April/Sept 2026, reflecting mainly the expected setback in key palm oil producing countries. Demand for vegetable oils from biofuel producers is a key variable to watch not only in the USA, but also in Indonesia and Brazil.