Tightening supplies in Europe as well was rallying vegetable oil prices worldwide have pushed EU rapeseed prices higher in the cash and futures markets in November. Prices for nearby delivery in northern Germany reached US-$ 568 on average of Nov 1-21, up 13% since Aug 2024 and the highest monthly level since Feb 2023.
In contrast, prices of imported US soybeans in Rotterdam were at US-$ 439 so far this month only 4% higher than in Aug 2024, widening the premium of rapeseed vis-a-vis soybeans.
However, further price increases from the current level appear inevitable to achieve 1) the required demand-rationing and 2) to promote farmer selling and the required reduction of stocks.
Monthly Prices Oilseeds 2024
World production of rapeseed in 2024/25 is seen turning out even lower than initially expected. Following downward revisions for Canada, Australia and the EU-27 world production is seen reaching 75.4 Mn T this season (down 4.4 Mn T from a year earlier), according to OIL WORLD.
Reduced old-crops stocks carried into the new season (down 1.0 Mn T) will widen the setback in world supplies to 5.4 Mn T, making demand-rationing inevitable in 2024/25. Frontloaded disposals (primarily in the EU-27 and Ukraine) kept world rapeseed crushings above the year-ago level in July/Sept 2024, delaying most of the required rationing to Jan/June 2025.
OIL WORLD forecasts EU rapeseed crushings to decline by roughly 1.5 Mn T or 6% in July/June 2024/25, assuming record imports of 7.28 Mn T (up 0.9 Mn T from a year earlier), sharply reduced exports of only 0.26 Mn T (down 0.4-0.5 Mn T) as well as a further significant decline in EU rapeseed stocks as of end-June 2025.
Rapeseed prices have also been supported by the shortage of vegetable oils on the world market. World production of the eight major vegetable oils is currently forecast to increase by only 2.2 Mn T this season, less than half the growth registered in 2023/24. Supplies are decimated further by the year-on-year decline of carry-in stocks by 1.3 Mn T as opposed to record inventories (+2.6 Mn T) in early Oct 2023. This supply squeeze may curb the increase of world consumption to only around 2.7 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2024/25, versus 8.6 Mn T a year ago. The world market must accomplish the difficult job of rationing demand sufficiently.
This contrasts with ample supplies of soybeans in 2024/25. World production of soybeans is now estimated at 423.5 Mn T, 28 Mn T above last season. South American soybean crop prospects are favourable. Soil moisture supplies are sufficient in most growing areas. After a delayed start, plantings made rapid progress. Soybean prices have come under pressure in the cash and futures markets, also pulling down soya meal. There is additional downward potential, due to the prospective significant global production surplus. Global dependence on soybeans as well as on soya oil and meal is rising sharply.
Update prepared by ISTA Mielke GmbH – Global Oil World analyses and forecasts for oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals in Hamburg, Germany. On www.oilworld.de more details are provided about the company profile and the individual services.