Market Update for Rapeseed & Canola 29th of July 2026

Bullish market fundamentals are current outweighing the bearish impact of seasonally increasing new-crop supplies in Europe, pushing rapeseed prices higher in July. Deteriorating crop prospects in the EU, rallying mineral oil prices as well as the risk of a slow start of Ukrainian exports (supply chain disruptions and delayed start of harvesting) have changed the market sentiment lately.

This year’s EU rapeseed crop is turning out smaller than initially expected, following repeated heatwaves in late June and mid-July. In the Czech Republic, 65% of the crop were already harvested as of July 27 (vs. only 32% last year), with an average yield of only 2.68 T/ha so far (vs. 3.19 T/ha). It is interesting to note that average yields have declined since the start of the current harvest campaign, while they had increased seasonally in the previous seven years. Taking also this year’s smaller area into account, Czech rapeseed production may drop to only 850-900 Thd T in 2026 (vs. 1.0 Mn T in 2025).

 EU Rapeseed Futures EUR/T

In France, latest official data point to a marginal setback in this year’s rapeseed crop despite the 12% increase in the area, also indicating disappointing yields. In the July MARS report, the EU Commission also released downward revisions for this year’s rapeseed yield estimates for Hungary (down 13% from the previous month), the Czech Republic (-5%), Denmark (-3%) and France (-1%). It can no longer be excluded that total EU rapeseed production falls to or even below 20.2 Mn T in 2026, down from 20.5 Mn T harvested last year.  

Reduced domestic production and increased competition for available world export supplies are likely to limit the increase in EU rapeseed crushings in 2026/27, with the extent of the setback in Australian canola production and the prospective recovery in Chinese purchases of rapeseed & canola the key swing factors to watch.  

Canadian canola crop prospects have improved following warm and dry weather conditions of late. In Saskatchewan, accounting for roughly 57% of this year’s total Canadian canola acreage, 76% of the crop was reportedly in good/excellent condition in mid-July (vs. only 60% a year earlier). But it is not yet clear how much irreversible damage the heavy rainfall and regional flooding registered early in the growing season has caused. OIL WORLD estimates the Canadian canola crop to reach a record 22.1 Mn T (vs. 21.8 Mn T harvested in 2025), with the 0.7 Mn ha increase in the area more than offsetting the forecast setback in the yield from last year’s exceptionally high level of 2.5 T/ha.

World production of rapeseed & canola is now estimated to reach a record 86.3 Mn T, but the production growth is likely to slow to only 0.7 Mn T compared to 9.2 Mn T last season. Taking larger stocks at the start of the season into account, world supplies are seen approaching 100 Mn T this season, a new high and sharply above 67.5 Mn T five years ago.

Update prepared by ISTA Mielke GmbH – Global Oil World analyses and forecasts for oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals in Hamburg, Germany. On www.oilworld.de more details are provided about the company profile and the individual services.